Germany must adapt to climate change

Model calculations and scenarios drawn up by climatologists point increasingly quickly to one conclusion: Germany's climate will have changed noticeably by 2100. On invitation of the Federal Environmental Agency (UBA) approximately 200 experts from politics, industry and administration met today in Berlin to discuss the effects of climate change and the adaptation to the change. "It is high time that we deal more intensively with the effects of climate change in Germany. We have to adapt today in order not to be overwhelmed by the economic and social consequences. For this purpose we need a joint national strategy. Every important stakeholder has to be on board," said Federal Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel. He and UBA President Andreas Troge inaugurated the new Expertise Centre for climate change effects and adaptation (KomPass) in the UBA. KomPass was set up to create a network for experts and to inform decision makers in industry and administration as well as the public. "We have to know what to expect. This is our only chance to find the best way to adapt to climate change at reasonable costs," said UBA President Troge.

Climate change will not go unnoticed in Germany. Model calculations done at the UBA show that the annual average temperatures compared to those of 1961 to 1990 are expected to rise by 1.5 to 3.7 degrees Celsius (°C) until 2100. It is considered highly probable that there will be a warming of 2 to 3 °C depending on the season. The strongest rise in temperature is to be expected in winter. Precipitation during the summer could decrease by 30% by 2100, most noticeably in Germany's Northwest and Southwest. There, precipitation levels common today might decrease by one third by the end of this century.

Minister Gabriel said: "Considering the urgent need for action, the Federal Government decided in late 2005 to develop a national concept for adapting to climate change based on the outstanding position of German actors and institutions. The national concept for adaptation aims to lay down priority fields of action as well as identify and coordinate measures on national, regional and local level."

What are possible effects of this climate change? Agriculture and forestry, for example, which are already facing dry spells in Germany's Northeast, would have to make do with even less water. Apart from more intense heat during the day, the population would have to deal with more tropical nights: nights during which the temperature does not drop below 20°C. Ailments such as fatigue caused by hot weather can be a consequence especially for older and sick people.

Companies, state and citizens have to adapt to these and other changes in time. But how? In flood protection, for example, different precipitation patterns have to be taken into account when building new dikes, floodwalls or detention reservoirs. In health care alarm systems and emergency plans could make work easier in hospitals and retirement homes when heat waves strike. In agriculture and forestry more of those plants have to be cultivated which are adapted to the changed temperatures and precipitation patterns.

In short: climate change will alter our daily habits and affect many economic sectors – besides agriculture and forestry it will also concern tourism, the energy industry and the insurance sector. These adaptation requirements are the consequence of past inadequacies. It is now important not to reduce climate protection efforts or it will be even more difficult to adapt. "We have to base an appropriate climate protection policy on two things: Adapting to today's inevitable consequences of the greenhouse effect and significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions in order to prevent extreme consequences of climate change and further adaptation requirements in the coming decades," explained UBA President Troge.

The UBA considers reducing greenhouse gas emission in Germany by 40% by 2020 and by 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 to be technically feasible and economically sensible. A clearly higher energy efficiency and the increased use of renewable energies are important opportunities to save our climate. "The target of our measures has to be to prevent greenhouse emissions and thus limit the rise in temperature by 2050 to a maximum of 2 degrees worldwide. This would make the rise in temperature due to greenhouse effects and the consequent deterioration in living conditions less dramatic," says President Troge.

Further information on climate change, adaptation and KomPass can be found in the background paper "Anpassung an Klimaänderungen in Deutschland" and on the Internet at www.umweltbundesamt.de/klimaschutz .

Further information:

• Press release as of 11.10.2006: "Climate change affects us all"